When preparing or reviewing your strategic plans, current trends can mislead us about the future trends. Accordingly, current trends should be carefully reviewed before using them as a base for future strategy planning.
To illustrate, since 2019, the Australian population trend has been of growth (up 7%), as have school student numbers (up 5%), and in-school staff (up 17%).
Seeing these trends, one could assume that the school-related sector’s future could be of growth. The schools sector relies on its raw materials – students – for its growth and as the number of children likely to start school next year is 5% higher than this year, the growth trend appears in line with the other trends.
But developing strategy from these trends could mislead.
Why?
Because of the time lag in the production of schools’ raw materials – children.
The number of births last year is 4% lower than it was in 2019. And even allowing for last year’s immigration of 5,500 children aged under one year, the number of prospective students born in 2024 and so prospective students in 2029 or so is 3% lower than the 2019 numbers. These 2019-born children are the students now and many of those who were students then have or are leaving the school system. Hence, as years go on, student numbers are likely to decline. The decline could affect all elements of schools’ strategy – from staffing, their products (subjects) offered, the school facilities required, and even where schools are best located.
In line with the decline in births, it is noticeable that, since 2019, children’s clothing store numbers have declined by 0.3% each year.
These examples relate to children and to schools specifically, but the similar relevant data can show how other sectors’ strategic plans should be developed and reviewed. We can assist in this and to discuss trends and your strategic plans further, please call Philip Derham on 0414 543 765 or use the Let’s get started form – and we look forward to helping you to further strengthen your strategy programs.
